Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:15AM EDT (1215 UTC) Saturday Feb 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds will pulse to gale force offshore of Colombia early this morning, and again tonight into early Sun as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low. Locally very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the gale force winds. Pulsing strong to near-gale force winds are expected each night and early morning into next week.

SW Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf of America early on Sun, with strong N winds and rough seas occurring behind the front west of 90W as it moves southeastward. Gale force winds are expected offshore of Veracruz on Sun in the wake of the front. Winds will diminish from north to south by Monday morning.

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 02S36W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 05N and east of 18W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
Please Refer to the Active and Developing Storms section for information regarding a Gale Warning in the southwestern Gulf of America on Sun.

A cold front extends from west-central Florida to 26N76W. Elsewhere, a 1016 mb low is located in southeastern Texas, and a trough extends toward the south through the central Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are occurring across the eastern, central and northwestern Gulf of America, with gentle to locally moderate winds in the southwestern basin, including the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted across the basin.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong SE to E winds will prevail in the southern Gulf early this morning, offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and northwestern Cuba. A warm front will lift northward through the northern basin today, and moderate to fresh SE to E winds are expected to develop across much of the basin, including through the Florida Straits. Locally strong S winds and rough seas will be possible in the northwestern Gulf offshore of Texas later this morning, with more widespread strong S to SW winds developing in the north-central Gulf late tonight into Sun. The next cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf of America early on Sun, with strong N winds and rough seas occurring behind the front west of 90W as it moves southeastward. Gale force winds are expected offshore of Veracruz on Sun in the wake of the front. Winds will diminish from north to south by Monday morning, with transient high pressure expected over the basin through Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the northwestern Gulf of America by the middle of next week.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Please Refer to the Active and Developing Storms section for information regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean offshore of Colombia.

Pulsing gale force winds are occurring offshore of northwestern Colombia, with strong winds occurring through the central Caribbean, through the Windward Passage and across the Atlantic Passages into the eastern basin. Elsewhere, fresh trade winds prevail in the southwestern and eastern basin, with moderate winds in the northwestern basin. Rough seas cover much of the central and eastern Caribbean, with locally very rough seas to 13 ft occurring near the gales. Otherwise, moderate seas prevail in the northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force offshore of Colombia early this morning, and again tonight into early Sun as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low. Locally very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the gale force winds. Widespread fresh trade winds and rough seas will occur across the central and eastern Caribbean through this weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela, through the Windward Passage, downwind of Hispaniola, in the lee of Cuba, in the Gulf of Honduras, and through the Atlantic Passages. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh NE winds are expected in the western basin. Looking ahead, a decreasing pressure gradient between the Colombian low and high pressure in the western and central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds and locally rough seas across the basin into early next week, with locally strong winds occurring offshore of Colombia.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A cold front extends from 31N55W southwestward into south Florida, and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough seas are occurring north of the front. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front has been analyzed from 31N20W to 31N33W to 27N43W. Rough seas are occurring near this cold front, with very rough seas noted north of 28N and east of 39W. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail south of 25N, with locally strong winds and rough seas occurring east of the Windward Islands from 12N to 18N west of 45W.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from 31N55W to south Florida will progress southeastward this morning before stalling along 28N later today, and dissipate by Sun. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected north of the front this morning. Pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will also occur north of Hispaniola and Cuba and near the Bahamas into Sun. A long-period N swell associated with this cold front will produce rough seas north of 27N by late morning, and north of 23N by Sun morning. Very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft will be possible north of 28N and east of 60W late tonight through Sun. Farther south, fresh trade winds and rough seas will prevail south of 23N through this weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds at times east of the Windward Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and rough seas will then occur in this region through at least the middle of next week. Elsewhere, winds will turn to the S and strengthen west of 70W off the coast of Florida by early Sun ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the coast of the southeastern United States Sun night. This front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Monday afternoon, then drift SE and weaken considerably through Tue.

Forecaster: Brian Adams, National Hurricane Center