South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...E Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se Late This Morning And Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Snow Early This Afternoon. Snow Late. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Early This Afternoon, Decreasing To Less Than 1 Nm. |
| Tonight...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Rain And Snow In The Evening, Then Rain After Midnight. Vsby Less Than 1 Nm, Increasing To 1 To 3 Nm After Midnight. |
| Sun...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming S 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Rain In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Snow Showers In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 659am EST Sat Feb 15 2025 Synopsis Deepening low pressure will move out of the Mid Mississippi Valley today, passing to the northwest on Sunday and then to the north Sunday night. A strong cold front will pass through behind the low late Sunday afternoon into the early evening. Strong high pressure drives into the middle of the country Tuesday into Wednesday and gradually noses in. Low pressure then emerges out of the Gulf of America and Southeastern US. This low strengthens as it attempts to lift north along and just off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday. The low pulls away Friday with high pressure building into next weekend. Near Term - Through Tonight A vigorous southern branch low will move out of the Mid Mississippi Valley today, eventually phasing with northern branch shortwave energy dropping across the Midwest tonight. This will result in a rapidly deepening surface low that approaches the eastern Great Lakes Sunday morning, sending a warm front towards the area. At the same time, cold high pressure over the area this morning weakens and dissipates east of the area tonight. The combination of strong thermal forcing moving into the area this afternoon and into tonight will allow for overrunning precipitation to break out first as snow, then transitioning to plain rain from south to north through the overnight. However, while plenty of warm air moves in aloft, it will take a bit longer for the low-level cold air across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior souther CT to get scoured out. There are some small timing differences with both the elevated warm layer aloft and surface subfreezing air, but generally no more than 1-2 hours. However, this could impact snow and ice amounts up or down depending on the arrival of the warm air. Typically this setup would favor the earlier scenario with a low track to the west and weak high pressure. Snowfall totals have been nudged up a bit across NYC and LI, but still only looking at 1-2 inches before a changeover to rain this evening. To the north and west where winter weather advisories remain in effect, expect anywhere from 2 to 4 inches with a glaze to two tenths of an inch of ice. The upper end of these ranges will be closer to I-84 and some of the higher terrain areas well inland. After lows this morning generally in the 20s, temperatures will be slow to rise due to increasing cloud cover and eventual evaporative cooling from precipitation falling into a drier airmass. Low-level winds will become onshore today form the SE at less than 10 mph, another warming ingredient. Highs will get into the lower and mid 30s this evening and will continue to gradually warm up through the overnight. By daybreak, areas well inland will be in the lower to mid 30s, with LI and the NYC around 40. Short Term - Sunday Through Sunday Night Low pressure is forecast to be west of the area Sunday morning with the associated warm front near or just south of LI. The first shot of warm advection precipitation will lift to the north and east with a secondary surge of warm advection as a southerly LLJ approaches from the south, strongest to the south and east of LI, with the potential for 75 to 85 kt just a few thousand feet. Airmass will be strongly inverted and any mixing of higher winds from aloft will likely not to happen until late in the afternoon as the cold front approaches from the west and the inversion erodes. With the warm front still in close proximity, strong thermal forcing both in the warm sector and to the north should allow for more a convective type of rainfall with showers and possible thunderstorms. Confidence is low so for the time being have left the mention of thunderstorms out. Rainfall during this time will be moderate to occasionally heavy with the best thermal forcing across eastern LI and SE CT. By the time the cold front passes late afternoon/early evening, much of the area is forecast to have received 1.5 to 2 inches of liquid equivalent, with the highest amounts across LI and CT. There will likely be plenty of ponding of water on areas roadways due to the rainfall and snow melt. However, any flooding should be limited to the minor nuisance variety with 6h FFG values generally over 2 inches. However, streams and small rivers in NJ could pose a minor flood threat. A high wind watch has also been issued for the entire area Sunday night into Monday. Just ahead and behind the cold front, there is the potential for wind gusts of 40-50kt, especially with the pressure rises immediately behind the cold front. Winds at the top of mixed layer will be around 50 kt, and on average about 40 kt through the layer. Thus, high winds are possible through the overnight, aided by strong cold advection and cyclonic flow. Temperatures will fall back below freezing and into the 20s by daybreak Monday. Long Term - Monday Through Friday * Windy with the potential for strong winds on Monday. * The potential remains and has increased some for a significant / major winter storm in the Wednesday night - Thursday night time frame. Low pressure pulls north into Eastern Canada and the Canadian maritimes Monday into Monday night. A strong W wind will be the main story to begin the week. The pressure gradient will begin to decrease and the winds gradually subside Monday night into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be running about 7 to 10 degrees below normal for Mid Feb for Monday into Monday night. Wind chills by Tuesday morning will be down into the single digits to around zero across the northern most sections. The heart of the cP air mass arrives for Tuesday into Tuesday night. The winds will be lighter so it may not feel quite as cold, but temperatures will continue to run well below average. Then all attention turns to the deep south as low pressure emerges out of the Gulf and tracks across No. Florida and along the SE coast Wednesday into Wednesday night. Much of the global guidance is suggestive of a Classic Miller A type storm. Ensemble sensitivity / cluster analysis does hint at some differences in how deep and south the northern branch upper level low gets, along with some difference in phase / speed, and thus timing differences. What is notable is that most of the 12z 2/14 Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ensemble clusters get the half inch Quantitative Precipitation Forecast line into the coastal plain. What is different from past scenarios this winter season is that the suppressed Pacific or southern branch energy will not get locked up in any type of SW US upper level low as any suppressed energy in the Pacific / Southern branch will come out and be intact as it gets east. Questions remain as to when and exactly how the northern closed low interacts with the suppressed Pacific branch energy. The 0Z 2/15 ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and UKMET operational runs bring a major snow event to the I95 corridor and our area. The CMC also brings a significant winter storm to the area and is furthest west which is suggestive at some mixing along the coast. The GFS (Global Forecast System) operational run struggles to bring the energy together, which can be a bias of the model. However, the EC-AIFS (AI model) and the ICON is doing something similar, but the ICON is less pronounced with the eastward position and track. However, most of the eastward guidance is suggestive of strong PVA along the coastal plain suggesting that the surface features could be placed too much to the east, especially considering the 500 mb features. The various ensemble systems overall (EPS, GEPS, and to a lesser extent the GEFS) are suggestive of a significant east coast storm. There remains a big discrepancy in the amount of deepening and position of the surface low tracks with respect to the various ECMWF / GFS ensemble members from the 0z 2/15 run. One thing to note is that there is no discernible downstream blocking, and thus the storm system is not expected to stall and should remain fairly progressive. In any event, this will be a hot topic over the upcoming days. Behind the system expect strong winds and cold / dry advection as it pulls away late Thu night into Friday. This should lead to dry and cold conditions to close out the week. Marine High pressure over the waters this morning weakens and then dissipates to the east through tonight. A storm system will impact the area with a strengthening southerly flow on Sunday, followed by strong west winds Sunday night. A gales watch has been posted for all waters Sunday afternoon through the first half of Monday night. There could even be occasional gusts up to storm force. Seas will build to 5 to 8 ft on LI Sound and 10 to 18 ft on the ocean waters overnight Sunday. Gale conditions across all waters on Monday with occasional storm force gusts in the wake of a storm moving through the Canadian maritimes. High ocean seas of 7 to 14 ft are expected through the day Monday. Seas and winds then gradually subside Monday night with gale conditions likely for a good portion of the night. Conditions then decrease to small craft on Tuesday with ocean seas down to around 4 to 7 ft. Sub advisory conditions arrive Tuesday night, with ocean seas down to around 2 to 3 ft by Wednesday. Hydrology No hydrologic impacts are anticipated from this weekend's storm system despite the fact that 1.5 to 2 inches of liquid is expected across the area. Thereafter no hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the remainder of the forecast period. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 7am EST Sunday for CTZ005>008. High Wind Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for CTZ005>012. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 1am EST Sunday for CTZ009>012. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 7am EST Sunday for NYZ067-068. High Wind Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 1am EST Sunday for NYZ069>071. NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 7am EST Sunday for NJZ002. High Wind Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 1am EST Sunday for NJZ004-103>105. Marine Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for ANZ350-353-355. |
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