Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas out 10 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Nw Wind Around 5 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 13 Seconds. Isolated Showers Early This Evening, Then Scattered Showers Late This Evening. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight. |
| Thu...Nw Wind Around 5 Kt, Rising To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 10 Seconds And W 4 Ft At 12 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Rain. |
| Thu Night...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 12 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Fri...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 6 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sat...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Backing To Nw In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Veering To E After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
| Sun...Se Wind Around 5 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...E Wind Around 5 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Mon...E Wind Around 5 Kt, Backing To W In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...N Wind Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 411pm PST Wednesday Jan 21 2026 .SHORT TERM... Issued at 116pm PST Wednesday Jan 21 2026 (This afternoon through Thursday) Generally quiet with largely mild conditions this afternoon across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Fog continues to slowly erode at this hour, with predominantly mid/upper level clouds continuing to overspread the area. Our upper low continues churn and WV/RAP mesoanalysis trends indicates that it continues to make it slow trek to the south and east. This is in line with current thinking. Radar imagery this afternoon has shown a couple of brief attempts at a loosely organized bands of what is largely virga/fall streaks. While the trends haven't been encouraging, satellite imagery indicates still some mid-level cumuliform clouds/instability that may swing to the NE and give us another shot as sprinkles or very light rain after 4pm this evening and continuing through the pre-dawn hours on Thursday and this seems in alignment with latest short term guidance. As noted this morning, Probability of Precipitation of 20-40% are advertised which remains along the higher end of the near/short term hi-resolution model guidance. Rain amounts at this time are anticipated to average around a few hundredths of an inch with the higher end scenario (10% chance of occuring) advertising a larger Quantitative Precipitation Forecast footprint (light rain as far as the North Bay) and up to a tenth of an inch across the higher terrain of Central Coast. As the main upper low continues to pivot eastward, subtle 700mb WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) may lift northward through the Central Valley and into the North Bay. While some orographic ascent cannot be ruled out along the eastern slopes of higher terrain, the dry low levels should translate to a low probability for measurable precipitation here, even though radar may look rather ominous. Otherwise, fog, albeit limited due to the cloud cover, may continue overnight and into early Thursday morning. However, additional low level mixing thanks to the elevated wind field make keep the footprint smaller than previous nights. Long Term Issued at 116pm PST Wednesday Jan 21 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Thursday evening will feature a subtle PV anomaly will ripple through the Great Basin and help sweep the initial upper low eastward. In its' wake, mid/upper level ridging is forecast. This will promote surface pressure rises across the Great Basin and tighten local MSLP gradients across the region. More importantly, the 925mb flow will increase with even coarser guidance advertising 30-40 knots out of the north through the Sacramento Valley. The synoptic scale background/pattern recognition in tandem with the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) would suggest an opportunity to alter messaging to advertise a noticeable uptick in winds, largely across the higher terrain of the North Bay and East Bay Hills. 2km PG&E WRF cross sections also indicate the potential for mountain wave type activity near and downwind of Mt. Saint Helena which could help enhance wind gusts. Given the highly localized nature of these phenomenon, have opted for targeted edits across the Mayacamas and higher terrain of the East Bay such that wind gusts reflect a blend of some of the higher end NBM percentiles. While fuel moistures have dried some, ERC values remain safely below critical fire weather thresholds. That said, please always be mindful that winter fuels could still promote some fire growth/smoke production. Overall, the themes in the extended forecast have not changed much. Ridging is anticipated to resume this weekend and largely dominate the weather pattern across the region through the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter, about one-quarter of the multi-model ensemble advertises more vigorous troughing across the Pacific NW. This would dampen out the ridge such that mid/upper level flow becomes more southwesterly, potentially opening the door for a disturbance or two. While the official forecast paints broad Probability of Precipitation across most areas (minus the far interior Central Coast), there still remains some model variability with some NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) "clusters" indicating little to no chance for precipitation. We'll continue to delve deeper into the model guidance with time. Marine (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 334pm PST Wednesday Jan 21 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes and moderate seas persist through Thursday morning. On Thursday afternoon into Friday, winds will increase to a fresh northerly breeze along with building rough seas. Strong to near gale force gusts will create hazards for small craft across the northern outer waters, with gale force gusts possible in the far northern outer waters. Conditions will improve over the weekend as a light to gentle breeze settles in and seas gradually subside to slight Sunday through Monday. NOAA San Francisco Bay Area Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3pm Thursday to 9pm PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. x.com/nwsbayarea |
Vandenberg AFB Radar
Pacific Southwest Radar