Marine Weather Net

Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SUNDAY

NW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

SUNDAY NIGHT

N
WINDS
20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ670 Forecast Issued: 330 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
Today...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers This Morning.
Tonight...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming Southwest 20 To 25 Knots After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 7 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Sunday...Northwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 7 Feet At 7 Seconds And Northwest 4 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning.
Sunday Night...North Winds Around 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: South 5 Feet At 7 Seconds And North 4 Feet At 5 Seconds.
Monday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: North 5 Feet At 5 Seconds And South 2 Feet At 7 Seconds, Becoming North 3 Feet At 5 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 7 Seconds.
Monday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 5 Seconds And Northwest 1 Foot At 5 Seconds.
Tuesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 6 Seconds.
Tuesday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight.
Wednesday...East Winds Around 20 Knots, Becoming North In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 5 Feet At 6 Seconds And North 3 Feet At 4 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers, Mainly In The Morning.
Wednesday Night...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Increasing To 25 To 30 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: North 5 Feet At 5 Seconds And South 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
548am CST Sat Feb 15 2025

/issued 327am CST Sat Feb 15 2025/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TER
Marine
Near Term
(Now through Saturday Night) Issued at 227am CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Overview... A potent upper trough swings across the gulf coast states later today into overnight tonight, sending a cold front rapidly eastward across the area. A severe weather event is anticipated to unfold, with damaging winds in excess of 70mph and several tornadoes (some of which could be strong EF2+) during the late evening/overnight hours tonight into pre-dawn hours Sunday morning. More on this can be found below.

Severe Weather... A potent severe weather threat once again looms over the entire forecast area as we head into late this evening into the overnight hours. Height falls begin overspreading the region after sunset as an upper trough takes on a neutral to eventually negative tilt over the gulf coast region. In response, a powerful QLCS will take shape across western into central Mississippi, stretching south into Louisiana. This will progress eastward in an environment that is very favorable for severe weather. Overall an uptrend in anticipated CAPE values has occurred on the CAM guidance, with some indications instability may reach over 1,000j/kg in some spots prior to the passage of the QLCS. This will also be accompanied by nearly 100j/kg of CAPE in the lowest 3 kilometers meaning very strong low level stretching can occur with updrafts. This all is coincident with a substantial amount of wind shear. This is exhibited by very large, curved hodographs depicting around 60 to 70 knots of deep layer shear and 300 to 500 m2/s2 SRH in the lowest 1 to 3 kilometers. Considering a healthy QLCS progressing across the area and height falls only becoming more intense with time, the anticipation is for a rather substantial severe threat to evolve including the potential for damaging winds in excess of 70mph and strong tornadoes (EF2+). Some CAMs also hint at a pre-frontal trough feature or some form of confluence bands setting up in advance of the QLCS, and given the forcing overspreading the area it would not surprise me if we see several discrete to semi-discrete supercell thunderstorms develop ahead of the line. These supercells will carry the same risks as the QLCS. Overall in regard to timing the line and any discrete activity may begin to enter the southeastern Mississippi counties as early as 9pm, with the threat spreading east towards the I-65 corridor around 12am, and then exiting the forecast area no later than daybreak.

Other Hazards... Several other hazards are evident for this event. The first being strong winds ahead of the main line of storms tonight. A 60kt low level jet situated around 1km AGL combined with enough low level instability to efficiently mix through that layer raises some concerns regarding strong wind gusts reaching the surface. Overall anticipating frequent wind gusts of 40 to 45mph moving across the area ahead of the line beginning mid evening and lasting through the passage of the line of storms itself. Given this, a Wind Advisory is being issued with this forecast package for tonight across the entire forecast area from 9pm through 6am.

In addition to the wind advisory, strong onshore winds will also increase surf heigheights substantially through the evening into the overnight hours. Surf heigheights of 5 to 7 feet are expected for all coastal zones of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and a High Surf Advisory goes into effect from 9pm tonight through 6pm Sunday.

A High Risk of rip currents will also go into effect beginning this morning at 6am and running through midnight Sunday night.

Overall temperatures will be quite warm today with strong warm advection ongoing at the start of the period. Expect highs today to top out in the upper 70's to near 80 degrees. Tonight temperatures crash in the wake of the cold front with most folks dropping into the middle and upper 50's after the QLCS rolls through. MM/25

SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 227am CST Sat Feb 15 2025

The cold front and the associated severe weather threat is expected to be east of the area after sunrise Sunday. It will turn much cooler and drier in the wake of the front as high pressure builds in. Strong cold air advection will keep temperatures from rising much if it all, with the actual highs for the day being immediately in the wake of the front. Temps Sunday afternoon will range from the low to mid 50s well inland with low to mid 60s along the coast. Sunday night lows will dip into the 30s for much of the area, with a light freeze expected far inland.

Dry and cool conditions will persist through next Monday and Tuesday, with temperatures moderating back to near normal by Tuesday due to semi-zonal flow aloft becoming more southwesterly ahead of the next developing storm system. 34/JFB

Long Term (Tuesday Night through Friday) Issued at 227am CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Our next storm system will quickly take shape by Tuesday night as significant shortwave energy ejects out of the southwestern US and into the southern plains. A surface low will develop along the baroclinic zone from the previous cold front off the upper TX coast and quickly move east across the far northern Gulf Wednesday morning. Given the track of the surface low, instability is currently forecast to remain offshore which would preclude any type of severe weather threat. Given our area will be just north of the surface low and baroclinic zone, very strong low level frontogenesis in the 925-850mb will likely result in an axis of moderate to heavy rainfall with the highest totals (1-3") most likely across the southern half of the area.

The rain is expected to quickly shift east of the region by Wednesday afternoon as a strong cold front moves through. This will set the stage for a dry but cold second half of the work week. The big question is how cold does it get? All guidance is in good agreement on arctic high pressure moving south into the plains states and Lower MS River Valley. However, guidance differs on just how much this airmass can move into our region due to uncertainty in how the upper level pattern will evolve late next week. The Euro ensemble mean is very close to the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) operational runs in showing a much colder solution than the GFS. Given the consistency in the ECMWF and its ensembles, we will trend toward the colder side on this forecast and further adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts. Regardless, it appears that highs will struggle to climb out of the 40s for much of the area Thursday and Friday. Thursday night/Friday morning has the potential to be bitter cold with lows well into the 20s (potentially upper teens in far inland areas.) Wind chills could be in the teens and single digits Friday morning. 34/JFB

Marine
Issued at 227am CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Moderate onshore flow today becomes strong tonight ahead of a cold front. A potent line of thunderstorms moves across the marine waters tonight with the cold front, bringing the threat for very strong wind gusts in excess of 50 to 60 knots and waterspouts. In the wake of the front, strong offshore flow resumes through early Monday, tapering to moderate easterly flow into Tuesday. Strong onshore flow returns late Tuesday into Wednesday as our next weather system pushes across the marine waters, with strong offshore flow in its wake late Wednesday into Thursday. A Gale warning is in effect for all marine waters tonight through early Sunday morning, with a Small Craft Advisory going into effect Sunday morning through Monday morning. MM/25

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...Wind Advisory from 9pm this evening to 6am CST Sunday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory from 9pm this evening to 6pm CST Sunday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory from 9pm this evening to 6am CST Sunday for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

High Surf Advisory from 9pm this evening to 6pm CST Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Wind Advisory from 9pm this evening to 6am CST Sunday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Gale Warning from 9pm this evening to 6am CST Sunday for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 6am Sunday to 9am CST Monday for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.