Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD Marine Forecast
| Today...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Rain This Afternoon. Patchy Fog This Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Rain With Areas Of Drizzle. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt... Becoming Sw 25 Kt With Gusts To 40 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain With Areas Of Drizzle. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 40 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Snow In The Morning, Then Snow. |
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Area Forecast Discussion ...CORRECTED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 404am EST Sat Feb 15 2025 Synopsis High pressure will move offshore today as a large area of low pressure develops over the middle Mississippi River Valley. A warm front associated with this low will slowly lift northward through the area tonight into Sunday morning, then a strong cold front will cross from west to east Sunday afternoon. Arctic high pressure will then build toward the region for the first half of next week before a coastal low possibly impacts the area. Near Term - Through Monday The next system will bring a prolonged period of unsettled weather to the area through Monday, producing multiple weather hazards locally. Overall, not much has changed in the thinking of the general pattern, but confidence in strong to damaging post-frontal winds and upslope mountain snow have increased. Synoptic overview: High pressure that's overhead early this morning will progress offshore today. At upper levels, a potent shortwave located over the Desert Southwest this morning will assume a positive tilt as it ejects out over the Southern Plains, and then eventually a negative tilt as it progresses northeastward toward the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Sunday. Such an evolution will cause an area of low pressure to form over Arkansas later today, and then rapidly intensify as it tracks northeastward through the Ohio and Saint Lawrence River Valleys tonight into Sunday. A prolonged period of warm advection/overrunning driven precipitation is expected from roughly midday through this evening. A bit of a lull (with some leftover drizzle/fog) will likely occur overnight, before a second round of precipitation moves through on Sunday in association with strong differential cyclonic vorticity advection driven ascent ahead of the upper trough. A strong cold front will move through Sunday afternoon, with strong cold advection and northwesterly winds ensuing behind the front. Wintry mixed precipitation: Precipitation may start as a brief period of snow and/or sleet near/north of I-66/US-50 later this morning. The best chance for this to occur looks to be north of I-70. It's possible that locations in the DC Metro stay dry through the morning. If that's the case and precipitation starts this afternoon, precipitation would likely be all in the form of plain rain there. Where snow does occur, a quick coating to a half inch or so could be possible. Temperatures will likely be near/slightly above freezing by late this morning, so any snow accumulation would primarily be confined to elevated/grassy surfaces. The greater concern when it comes to wintry precipitation will be freezing rain. Any snow or sleet this morning will transition over to liquid precipitation as warmer air works in aloft by this afternoon. Across lower elevations, temperatures will have warmed above freezing, leading to all plain rain. At higher elevations, temperatures may hold below freezing as warmer air works in aloft, leading to some freezing rain. Any ice accumulations are expected to occur above 1000 feet, with just a glaze of ice between 1000-1500 feet. More significant ice accumulations of a tenth to a quarter of an inch will be possible above 1500 feet (further north) to 2000 feet (further south). The greatest impacts from ice are expected to occur along the Blue Ridge, in the Catoctins, and in extreme western Allegany/eastern Garrett Counties. Warmer air should move in at the surface across the entire area during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Precipitation should be rain for all tonight through Sunday morning. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for Frederick (MD), Albermarle, and Nelson Counties, as well as all locations along/west of the Blue Ridge from 10am to 7 PM. Again, it's worth emphasizing that this will be an elevation driven event, with little to no impact expected in the valleys. Heavy Rainfall/Flooding: This system is expected to produce a broad one to one and a half inches of precipitation across much of the area. This precipitation will be spread out over a prolonged period of time, so most locations aren't expected to have issues with flooding. The exception will be in the Alleghenies, and then eastward into Augusta County, where a combination of that rainfall and snowmelt could lead to isolated instances of flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect for those locations this evening through Sunday afternoon. High Winds: As low pressure rapidly deepens and tracks off to our north, strong winds are expected in its wake. The system's cold front will move through the area Sunday afternoon. Given extremely strong pressure rises and a robust LLJ, gusty to damaging winds appear increasingly likely within northwesterly flow behind the front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across the entire area. A High Wind Watch has been issued for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge and near/north of US-50 into southern MD. The strongest gusts are most likely for a few hours behind the initial frontal passage, though gusty winds (advisory caliber perhaps) may very well linger into Sunday night/Monday. Severe Thunderstorm Threat: Although instability is expected to be rather limited, up to a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE is progged by some hi-res guidance near and east of I-95 and especially into southern MD right ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon. This, combined with the very strong forcing and low-level wind fields, results in a marginal (level 1 of 5) threat of both convectively-enhanced damaging wind gusts as well as a brief, isolated tornado. Upslope Snow: Upslope snow is also expected in the Alleghenies behind the front late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. At the moment, this looks like a high-end Advisory type of event. The current forecast has around 3-6 inches of snow from late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. The combination of high winds and snow could potentially produce near blizzard conditions at times late Sunday afternoon into Monday. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued to cover this threat along and west of the Allegheny Front in Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton Counties. Short Term - Monday Night Through Tuesday Night An expansive area of Arctic high pressure will build into the north-central CONUS early next week. Below normal temperatures are expected to take hold over the Mid-Atlantic as a result. Aloft, the upper pattern continues to look rather ominous. Although Monday night through Tuesday night appear mainly dry, high clouds will likely stream by at times as confluent upper flow maintains a strong jet just to the north. The system that will impact us this weekend will have deepened substantially, and will only slowly pivot across the Canadian Maritimes. In its wake, a large upper low will begin descending into the northern Plains, as ridging amplifies along the West Coast. The cold air moving in, the strengthening upper flow, deep upper low digging into the middle of the country with ridging to the west along the coast and downstream confluence/blocking may set the stage for a coastal/winter storm heading into mid week. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday A cold dome of high pressure overhead will move off to our north and east on Wednesday. A low pressure system will quickly develop over southeast Georgia around late morning or midday Wednesday, before moving up the Eastern U.S. Coastline toward Cape Hatteras and rapidly intensifying into a big winter storm Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. Temperatures on Wednesday will be about 10 to 15 degrees below average only reaching near or slightly below or slightly above freezing, setting the stage for some accumulating snowfall widespread across our region. The winter storm expected Wednesday into Thursday shows a track and intensity that could equate to several inches of snow. This particular winter storm is still 4 to 5 days out from now so there remains some uncertainty as to the exact track and exact intensity and which model leans toward the best solution. The NAM model only goes out as far as midday Tuesday and can only show us signs of some front-running warm advection light snowfall spreading east across the western Ohio Valley. The GFS (Global Forecast System) model shows a fast moving winter storm that could stay just offshore from Georgia to the Outer Banks and then out to sea. Thus, this track and speed would favor a few inches of snow across the southeastern third of our region from midday Wednesday through late Thursday. The UKMET is between the GFS, and the models listed below. The EUROPEAN model shows a strong winter storm that rides along the coastline from Georgia to the Outer Banks, slows slightly while moving north into southern New England, while rapidly intensifying. Because this model shows the rapid intensification between the mouth of the Chesapeake and New Jersey, it has much more snow than the GFS in our region. The CANADIAN shows a fast moving winter storm that rides along the coastline as well with a similar amount of snow as the EUROPEAN but may have its track a few miles inland which could decrease totals a little. Bottom line is that we may be looking a major winter storm but with subtle to moderate uncertainties in terms of snow amounts. Marine Winds will remain east to southeasterly through Sunday morning, likely increasing to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) strength or perhaps even brief gale Sunday morning particularly over the mid bay. A strong cold front will move through Sunday afternoon. Gale to even storm force gusts appear likely behind that front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Gale Watches have been upgraded to Gale Warnings for all waters during that time. The warnings are in effect through Monday as winds will likely be slow to diminish. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are favored for much of Monday night into Tuesday before the gradient relaxes as high pressure moves in and winds diminish. Coastal low pressure will begin taking shape to the south on Wednesday. Hydrology Several inches of snow remain on the ground for many areas along and west of the Blue Ridge, with the deepest over the Appalachians where a half to one inch of snow-water equivalent resides per latest NOHRSC analysis. This, combined with temps rising to 45-55, dew points into the 40s, and rainfall of one to locally two inches tonight into Sunday results in a risk for flooding. Scattered instances of flooding may result, with more numerous instances of flooding possible if (1) warmer scenarios verify, or (2) rainfall is heavier. Overall, the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast trend has been down the past several cycles, but individual CAMs have stripes of higher 2-3 inch values which could still plausibly cause flooding. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for DCZ001. MD...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508. Winter Weather Advisory from 10am this morning to 7pm EST this evening for MDZ001-003-004-501-502. Winter Weather Advisory from 4pm Sunday to 4pm EST Monday for MDZ001. Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for MDZ001-501. High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for MDZ001-501-502. VA...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for VAZ025>031-040-053-054-501-505>508-526-527. Winter Weather Advisory from 10am this morning to 7pm EST this evening for VAZ025>031-036-037-503-504-507-508. High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for VAZ503-504. Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for VAZ025-503-504. WV...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for WVZ050>053-055. Winter Weather Advisory from 10am this morning to 7pm EST this evening for WVZ050>053-055-501>506. Winter Weather Advisory from 4pm Sunday to 4pm EST Monday for WVZ501-505. Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for WVZ503. High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for WVZ501>506. Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for WVZ501-502-505-506. Marine Gale Warning from 10am Sunday to 4pm EST Monday for ANZ530>543. |
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