New York Harbor Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 2 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Snow Early This Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Rain And Snow Late This Evening And Early Morning. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Until Early Morning. |
| Thu...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 2 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: W 1 Ft At 2 Seconds. |
| Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: W 2 Ft At 2 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: W 2 Ft At 2 Seconds. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To Around 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Snow Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1229am EST Thu Jan 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence continues increasing for an impactful winter storm Sunday into Monday. .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Confidence increasing in a winter storm Sunday into Monday. 2.) A prolonged period of below freezing temperatures is expected beginning Friday night and continuing through the middle of next week. .KEY MESSAGE 1... Continued good agreement among the deterministic and AI models regarding a winter storm impacting the area Sunday into Monday. Longwave pattern continues the trend of greater phasing between northern and southern stream energy, helping to steer low pressure closer to us compared to the depictions of 24+ hours ago. 12z Weds suite consensus would have a low pressure center passing near or just south of the 40N/70W benchmark Sunday night. An inverted trough connected to a weaker low center to our northwest may then shift through on Monday, which could result in higher chances of lingering snow than currently in the forecast for Monday. It's still too early for any specifics on amounts as changes in the upper pattern and resulting storm track will impact amounts, and with the potential start time of the event still 4 days away, there's still plenty of time for trends to be continued or disrupted. Changes in the potential liquid equivalent amounts, warm air intrusion from a closer storm approach, and the placement of a potential coupled jet structure and other sources of enhanced lift, are among factors will influence snowfall amounts. Something which at least is more certain are cold temperatures (teens to mid 20s) through the event, and this is something that would contribute to higher snow to liquid equivalent ratios. The latest NBM probability for greater than 6 inches of snow has now increased to 80-90 percent across the entire forecast area. The potential exists for the snow to be drier and powdery based on the arctic air mass in place, but these details will be worked out as the event draws closer. The bottom line here is that an impactful winter storm is increasingly likely Sunday into Monday. The storm track, timing, and snow amount details will be in better focus over the next few days. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Return flow around an offshore area of high pressure will help lift a weak warm front through the area tonight. This will allow temperatures to remain nearly steady or slowly rise overnight before peaking in the low to mid 40s Thursday afternoon. The warm frontal passage may be enough to spark a few rain or snow showers late this afternoon into tonight. Any precipitation will be light, with any snowfall accumulations limited to a few tenths of an inch. The brief reprieve from the cold ends quickly as a cold front crosses the area Thursday evening. This front will usher in a colder airmass for Friday, with highs only rising to around 30 inland and just a few degrees above freezing near the coast. A reinforcing shot of cold air arrives Friday night as another cold front crosses the area. Under cold air advection, temperatures Friday night will drop into the lower single digits across typically cooler locations to around 10 across the New York City metro. These temperatures combined with 10-15 mph winds will result in wind chills ranging from 0 to -10, which may eventually warrant cold weather headlines. After near advisory-level wind chills early Saturday morning, the afternoon remains in a frigid airmass. Records for the lowest maximum temperature could be tied or broken for some of the local climate sites on Saturday. See the climate section below for the current records. High temperatures each day from Sunday through Wednesday are expected to be mainly in the 20s with lows in teens to single digits. Wind chills could approach advisory thresholds Monday night into Tuesday morning. Marine SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will continue on the ocean waters through the day on Thursday, and may expand over the non-ocean waters for a period late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Winds should then briefly subside on all waters early Friday morning before increasing again Friday afternoon in association with a cold frontal passage. Relatively tranquil conditions are expected Saturday through Saturday night with seas subsiding on a weakening NW to N flow. Low pressure then brings a chance of gales across most, if not all, waters for at least Sunday into Sunday night and possibly lingering into Monday. Climate Record Low Maximum Temperatures: January 24: KEWR: 15/1936 KBDR: 20/2014 KNYC: 6/1882 KLGA: 18/1987 KJFK: 19/1987 KISP: 19/2014 NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST this morning for ANZ332- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. |
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