Marine Weather Net

Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast


TODAY

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN

S
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ137 Forecast Issued: 657 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
Today...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se 5 To 10 Kt Late This Morning, Then Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt This Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop Late This Morning, Then Increasing To A Moderate Chop This Afternoon.
Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.
Sun...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw 25 To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Waves Rough, Increasing To Very Rough In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. Showers.
Sun Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Choppy. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Tue...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.
Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Wed...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain In The Afternoon.
Wed Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves Choppy. Rain. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
709am EST Sat Feb 15 2025

Synopsis
High pressure will gradually shift offshore today as a strong cold front approaches the coast, crossing the region late Sunday. High pressure then builds in behind the departing front early next week and dry weather returns until Wednesday.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 705am Sat...Surface high continues to push offshore this morning while surface trough has made little headway towards the coast. Gradient on the trough's western edge is boosting winds along the water and keeping temps along the water a few degrees warmer than inland areas. Aloft, the area remains under zonal flow with several weak embedded shortwaves, but the main attention is to strong troughing digging towards the RGV, expected to aid in cyclogenesis over the southern plains through today and eventually become our main weather- maker tomorrow.

Overall forecast thinking has not changed. Daytime hours today will remain mainly dry as high pressure shifts farther offshore and surface trough swings inland, ushering in warm southerly flow. Temps will quickly rise in response and expect highs to rise into the mid 60s south of Highway 70 and low 60s elsewhere. Exception will be across NOBX where cooler waters will keep temps in the mid 50s. Clouds steadily increase through the day, but 00z guidance has trended back on precipitation coverage suggesting only a slight chance of a shower or two across the far inner coastal plain. Trended Probability of Precipitation in that direction, showing less than 30% chance west of Highway 17.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Sunday
As of 420am Sat...Southerly flow will continue to strengthen overnight as cold front continues to march eastward across the CONUS. A weak wave will migrate along the coast overnight coinciding with a pocket of modest surface-based instability, and this will likely support a brief but high-confidence period of showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two, with the best chance of overnight rumbles along the Outer Banks and Crystal Coast. Deeper shear will remain displaced well to our west by this point and not expecting any severe threat. Rainfall amounts will average around a quarter inch with this wave, but locally higher amounts are possible in more robust convective activity.

Temps will only fall a few degrees from today's highs owing to strong and persistent pre-frontal WAA, resulting in very mild overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60.

Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
As of 315am Saturday... KEY MESSAGES

- Strong cold front to bring multiple minor impacts Sunday

- Confidence increasing regarding a coastal low impacting the Carolinas next week

Sunday: A strong cold front will sweep east through ENC during the day Sunday as a potent SFC low tracks ENE across the Northern Mid- Atlantic and Southern New England. A strong pressure gradient ahead of the advancing front will lead to increasing southerly winds Sunday morning. Despite widespread cloudcover, strong low-level WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) should allow temperatures to warm through the 60s and, for some inland locations, into the low 70s. This should support at least shallow mixing, with modestly deeper mixing expected where temps can reach the 70s. Aloft, deterministic guidance has trended stronger with the LLJ winds, and are now suggesting 925mb winds could top out in the 70kt+ range. While it's unlikely the boundary layer will mix deep enough to reach those higher values, the increase in model guidance for winds, plus shallow to modestly deep mixing suggests an uptick in winds is warranted with this forecast. Adding to the confidence, the ECMWF's EFI guidance now shows a stronger signal for impactful winds. With this forecast, we'll now show a widespread area of 40-45 mph winds across much of ENC. Within this broad area, there is an area east of HWY 17 with a relatively higher confidence in 45+ mph wind gusts. The reason for this is this is the area that has the best opportunity to reach the 70s prior to the arrival of the frontal band of showers and embedded thunderstorms. In light of this, we have issued a Wind Advisory covering the above-mentioned area where confidence is highest. Eventually, the advisory may need to be expanded in area. It should be noted that the higher side of guidance suggests a reasonable worst case scenario in which there are several 50+ mph wind gusts. This may especially be the case if any area can see some breaks in the clouds and top out a bit warmer, allowing deeper mixing.

Regarding the thunderstorm potential with the front, it still appears that warm temperatures aloft, and weak mid-level lapse rates, will significantly limit instability, despite decent low- level and boundary layer moistening. Deterministic guidance generally shows around 250j/kg MUCAPE, and ensemble guidance only gives about a 30-50% chance of exceeding 250j/kg MUCAPE. This continues to suggest a high shear/low CAPE scenario, with a limited risk of deep convection. Because of that, we continue to expect the risk of severe weather to be on the marginal side. Where/if thunderstorms can develop, the main risk will be strong, damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph. Of note, historically this type of setup favors some wind damage potential, even with limited instability. Storm Prediction Center continues to advertise a "Marginal" risk for our entire area, and this seems more than reasonable given the setup. The main severe weather window looks to be from 10am - 5pm. The cold front then moves offshore with a decreasing risk of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm.

Monday - Tuesday: Cooler and drier conditions move in early next week in the wake of Sunday's cold front. Temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s for highs, and in the 20s and 30s for lows.

Wednesday - Friday: By the middle of next week, a Gulf low is forecast to develop and track up along, or just off, the Southeast U.S. coastline. The latest suite of guidance has generally trended deeper and slower with this system, but also a bit further inland. Based on these trends, this would favor more liquid precipitation, and less wintry precipitation. Regardless, a swath of moderate to heavy precipitation appears likely as the low moves up along the coast. If the deeper trend continues, there would also be a risk of strong winds. We'll continue to closely monitor trends with this system in the coming days. In the wake of this system, a shot of below normal temperatures appears likely, serving as a reminder that winter isn't quite over just yet... Marine
SHORT TERM /Saturday/... As of 430am Sat...Banal boating conditions present over area waters this morning as surface high is centered off the mid- Atlantic coast, while sharpening trough axis continues to linger beyond 20nm offshore. Gradient on the western edge of the trough is resulting in a narrow band of enhanced northeasterly flow around 15 kt, but this will weaken over the next couple of hours as the trough pivots inland. Seas sit at 3-4 feet.

As high moves further offshore, winds will steadily veer southerly through the day and increase as a strong cold front approaches the waters from the west. Winds increase markedly after sunset, especially over the Gulf Stream as strengthening LLJ moves overhead and widespread Gales will develop across all but the far northern offshore waters by 09z Sunday morning. Seas will already be rising before this, reaching 6 feet by 00z and then 8-10 feet by sunrise.

Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
As of 315am Saturday... KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will bring moderate to significant marine impacts through Sunday

- Gale and Storm Warnings now in effect for Sunday

The forecast remains on track for an impactful period for mariners on Sunday. Strong southerly winds of 25-35kt are expected ahead of a cold front Sunday. During this time, frequent gusts of 35-45kt are expected. For the warmer waters between Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras, frequent gusts to nearly 50kt appear likely, and a Storm Warning has been issued for that area. Elsewhere, the Gale Watches were upgraded to Gale Warnings. Seas will quickly build on Sunday, peaking in the 10-15ft range south of Cape Hatteras, and 6-10ft north of Hatteras. Winds and seas will slowly subside behind the front Sunday night, with improving conditions as we move into early next week. The next impactful system arrives towards the middle of next week as a coastal low move up along, or just off, the ENC coastline. A period of hazardous winds and seas may accompany this low, depending on the track and strength.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 315am Saturday... A strong cold front will move through ENC on Sunday, and will be accompanied by a period of strong southwesterly winds. Sustained winds are currently forecast to stay just below gale-force thanks to the colder waters of the Pamlico Sound, which should limit the risk of coastal flooding for soundside areas. That said, minor water level rises will be possible for soundside locations along Hatteras Island. At this time, coastal flood headlines are not anticipated, but we'll continue to reassess this potential. Additionally, increased southerly swell may lead to some minor ocean overwash impacts for vulnerable areas of HWY 12 along Ocracoke Island. This will be more of a windswell, though, with shorter periods (ie. less than 10 seconds), which may tend to limit the impact.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Wind Advisory from 9am to 7pm EST Sunday for NCZ029-044>047- 080-081-092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. High Surf Advisory from 7am to 10pm EST Sunday for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205.

Marine
Gale Warning from 10am to 4pm EST Sunday for AMZ131-136-137- 230-231. Gale Warning from 10am to 7pm EST Sunday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)-150. Gale Warning from 7am Sunday to 4am EST Monday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC). Storm Warning from 10am to 7pm EST Sunday for AMZ154(Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet)-156. Gale Warning from 4am Sunday to 1am EST Monday for AMZ158.