
Matagorda Bay Marine Forecast
Today...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. Patchy Fog Early This Morning. A Slight Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms This Afternoon. |
Tonight...Southwest Winds Around 15 Knots, Becoming Northwest 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight, Then Becoming North 20 To 25 Knots Late. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy Becoming Rough Late. |
Sunday...North Winds Around 30 Knots, Easing To Around 20 Knots. Bay Waters Very Rough, Easing To Choppy. |
Sunday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming Northeast Around 15 Knots After Midnight. Bay Waters Choppy, Easing To Slightly Choppy After Midnight. |
Monday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Veering To East In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. |
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. |
Tuesday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth To Slightly Choppy. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Becoming North Around 30 Knots After Midnight. Bay Waters Rough, Rising To Very Rough After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers. |
Wednesday...North Winds Around 30 Knots. Bay Waters Very Rough. |
Wednesday Night...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Bay Waters Rough. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 558am CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Long Term (Monday through Friday) Issued at 429am CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Beginning of the long term features no major changes. Surface high pressure over the Plains will push off to the east next week, veering winds to the east/southeast and re-establishing onshore flow Monday afternoon. Temperatures briefly pick up on Tuesday with highs reaching the 60s/mid 70s, trending upwards from yesterday. This looks to be the warmest day in the long term forecast. An elongated upper level trough/low spanning the Northern Plains/Mississippi River Valley/Lower Canada is still expected to push a strong Arctic Cold front through SE Texas Tuesday night, unleashing frigid winter-like condition in the days following. Model and ensemble guidance shows a strong 1040-1050mb surface high filling in across the Plains associated with this frigid Arctic airmass. Looking at NAEFS, you can see SLP around the 90th to 99.5th climatological percentile for Thursday morning, though these values are offset from the center of the surface high, extending further south. This indicates the anomalous nature of this Arctic airmass's southern extent, which seems to reflect what deterministic models & ensembles have been hinting at as well. Moreover, NAEFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) now have 1000mb Temperatures forecasted to be below the 0.5th climatological percentile, showing a much more aggressive signal with regards to cold temperatures than before. Return intervals for these values in the NAEFS are around 1 day every 5 to 10 years, further indicating the unusual nature of such cold temperatures compared to what is typically seen in winter here. The NBM has been playing catchup in regards to temperatures and dewpoints, which are distinctly lower still across LREF ensemble members. Cloud cover has trended downward as well, which should further tighten the spread between temperatures and dewpoints. Like yesterday, aiming below the base NBM seems to be the winning strategy to get ahead of these cold temperatures, especially since (as mentioned before) these global models cannot resolve shallow cold layers. Overall utilized a similar blend to yesterday for low temperatures, leveraging BC ECMWF and NBM 25th. Temperatures and winds chills slowly improve on Thursday through the end of the week as this Arctic airmass slides off the east, though it will still be unpleasantly cold. Chances for wintry precipitation with this system remain comfortably low for the time being. Forecasted low temperatures for Wednesday night/Thursday morning continue to trend downwards, ranging from the 20s near the coast to teens further north. Hard Freeze conditions are likely north of I- 10, and it's within the realm of possibility that this hard freeze could extend further south towards the coastline. Breezy winds with these low temperatures are likely to bring Extremely Cold Wind Chill values across SE Texas during this time frame. The exact values will vary from day to day with each model run, but at present, Wind Chills in the Lower Teens to Single Digits are indeed in play, especially across the Brazos Valley. Some guidance even suggests that we could go lower... but we'll see how this system evolves over the next few days. For the time being, SE Texas should brace for what will be an exceptional cold snap. Make sure to dress appropriately for the cold (mittens/gloves, hats, jacket, multiple layers), as prolonged exposure could lead to cold illnesses. 03 Marine Issued at 429am CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Patches of sea fog continue across portions of the bays/nearshore waters early today. Visibility has improved around Galveston bay with strengthening wind speeds, but not for Matagorda bay, which could take till later this morning to clear out. Another cold front will push off the coast Saturday night, bringing stronger winds and seas through the rest of the weekend. Onshore flow returns Monday afternoon with another lull in winds/seas early next week. An Arctic cold front should push offshore late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, bringing another round of high seas and strong offshore winds with gusts to Gale force possible. Low water levels could develop in the bays behind this Arctic front. Sub-freezing temperature are likely across the bays early Thursday morning. 03 NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10am CST this morning for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338- 436>439. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am CST this morning for GMZ330-350. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3pm CST this afternoon for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until 3pm CST this afternoon for GMZ350- 355-370-375. |