Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel, TX Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: South 5 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 25 To 30 Knots, Becoming North 30 To 35 Knots With Gusts Up To 45 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Building To 6 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet After Midnight. Wave Detail: South 5 Feet At 7 Seconds, Becoming South 4 Feet At 7 Seconds And North 3 Feet At 3 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Monday...North Winds 25 To 35 Knots, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet, Subsiding To 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: South 3 Feet At 7 Seconds, Becoming South 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. |
| Monday Night...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Becoming Northeast Around 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. |
| Tuesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. |
| Wednesday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. |
| Wednesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. |
| Thursday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 618pm CDT Sunday Mar 15 2026 Issued at 112pm CDT Sunday Mar 15 2026 From the highest of highs to the lowest of lows...seriously though! High temperatures this afternoon will reach the mid to upper 80s, then tonight we'll see low temperatures in the 30s/40s. A 30-40+ degrees drop is quite the flip of the switch, so that should give y'all an indication of just how strong this cold front is. There are a multitude of hazards to talk about both along and behind the front, but let's start with what's going on ahead of the front. 850mb/surface UA obs reveal developing low pressure in the western part of the Upper Midwest. Subsequently, a LLJ continues to strengthen overhead and is expected to reach 35-45 kt by this afternoon. Some of these winds will be able to mix down to the surface leading to wind gusts reaching 30-40 mph throughout the day. As a result, a Wind Advisory went into effect this morning and will remain in effect through Monday afternoon. As the surface low drifts eastward on Sunday, it will drag a cold front through Southeast TX in the late afternoon/evening hours. The general timing still looks to be 5-6pm in the Brazos Valley/Piney s, 7-8pm in the Houston metro area, and off the coast by 9-10pm. That should give you an idea of how progressive this front will be...it'll be MOVING! Thankfully, past Cam did the math and calculated the speed of the front to be moving around 35-40 mph. There will be a thin band of showers/storms along the front as it pushes through later today. Moisture availability will be the main inhibitor of keeping this line from becoming anything more substantial. Convergence along the front will gradually lead to an increase in moisture along the boundary as it makes its way towards the coast. So, the latest CAM guidance continues to show the trend of the line of showers/storms gradually expanding southwestward as it moves southward through our area. There is potential for a few storms along this line to become strong to severe. Now remember that moisture availability is the only question mark. We have the instability, we have the lapse rates, we have the shear, and we have quite the lifting mechanism right along the front. If a storm manages to become strong to severe, strong winds are the primary hazard. Hail and an isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out though. As a result, Storm Prediction Center has outlined the far eastern areas (east of a Trinity-Coldspring-Liberty line) in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. The majority of everywhere else in Southeast TX is outlined in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5). As previously mentioned, this will be a very progressive front, so flooding is not a concern at all. The most likely maximum rainfall totals will be in the 0.10-0.25" range. There are multiple hazards to discuss in the wake of the front, so let's start with the inland hazards. Overnight into Monday morning, a strong LLJ in the 50-60 kt range will be overhead. Some of these winds will mix down to the surface leading to sustained northerly winds in the 20-30 mph range with gusts peaking above 40 mph. The Wind Advisory extends into Monday afternoon for this reason. The strongest wind gusts will occur overnight into Monday morning. With how gusty these winds are expected to be, localized power outages (especially near the coast) will be possible. These gusty winds will overlap with very dry air (RH values in the upper teens to low 20s), which will lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Monday. [See Fire Weather discussion below for more details] Additionally, these strong winds will create hazardous marine conditions both ahead of and in the wake of the front ranging from an increased risk of rip currents today to gale force winds, elevated seas, and potential for abnormally low water levels in the bays during low tide cycles this evening into Monday. [See Marine discussion down below for more details] Temperatures behind the front will be some of the coolest we've experienced since early February! High temperatures on Monday will be in the 50s...the last time that this happened was on February 1st (over 40 days ago). Tonight and Monday night will feature low temperatures in the 30s/40s with the potential for a light freeze Monday night in portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney s. Since we've had springlike temperatures for quite a while, some budding and green up has occurred. Those in these locations should take precautions to protect vulnerable plants in these temperatures since this is fairly late in the season. Also, just wanted to throw it out there that wind chill values tonight into Monday morning will be in the 20s/30s areawide. A rather robust mid/upper level high begins to build into the southwestern CONUS around midweek. We'll go on a warming trend next week as well with temperatures approaching the upper 80s by the end of the work week. This mid/upper level high looks to expand a bit eastward going into the weekend. There is some potential that we could see our first 90°F of the year next weekend, but it's definitely too early to lock that in. I'll keep in the fun facts from yesterday's discussion though that the average first 90°F day for the City of Houston is May 6th and that we saw a 90°F day in mid March last year! Whew that was a lot...but I'm not finished just yet! A couple of days ago, I talked about the GFS (Global Forecast System) reflecting a band of increased 500- 700mb moisture (80-100% RH) overnight into early Monday morning in far eastern parts of the Piney s. Now that we're well in the range of high-res guidance, I decided to take another deep dive into this scenario. The results are certainly interesting! There is decent consensus on eastern portions of the Piney s (not anywhere near the Houston metro area) having saturation in the dendritic growth zone (-20 to -10C). There remains quite the layer of dry air from this layer down to the surface though (~4-5 km). Wet bulbing would have quite a bit of work to do to cool the temperatures aloft closer to the dew points, but if it manages to do so (and that's a BIG if), there is a non-zero (<5%) chance that MAYBE a few flurries could reach the surface. There is less than a 3 hour window for this to occur though, so this is about as borderline as you can get. This scenario becomes slightly more favorable the further northeast you go. Batiste Marine Issued at 112pm CDT Sunday Mar 15 2026 Southerly to southwesterly winds and seas continue to gradually increase in advance of an approaching cold front. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this evening. These increased winds also increases the potential for strong rip currents on Sunday, so be advised if you have plans to head to the beach and be sure to check the flag conditions. A cold front will push offshore this evening around 9-10pm with a thin band of showers/storms along the boundary. Expect strong northerly winds (30-35 kt with 40-45 kt gusts) and elevated seas (10- 15 ft) in the wake of this front through Monday. Cannot entirely rule out occasional gusts near 50 kt in the Gulf waters. A Gale Warning will go into effect this evening into Monday afternoon. Those heading to the beaches or out on the waters for Spring Break should be advised of this period of hazardous marine conditions late Sunday into Monday. Typically inflatables are discouraged by beach patrol with offshore winds. Additionally, PETSS guidance continues to indicate the potential for abnormally low water levels during times of low tide on Monday. Winds and seas gradually subside going into Monday night, but remain elevated enough for a Small Craft Advisory to follow the Gale Warning through the early half of Monday night. Onshore flow returns by Tuesday and prevails through the end of the work week. Batiste Fire Weather Issued at 112pm CDT Sunday Mar 15 2026 A surge of very dry air will filter into Southeast TX in the wake of a cold front that pushes through late Sunday. This will lead to a period of elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Monday as very dry air (minimum RH values in the upper teens to low 20s) and gusty northerly winds (gusts up to 30-40 mph) prevail into the afternoon. The Texas A&M Forest Service has areas generally south of I-10 outlined in an extreme fire danger rating (level 5 out of 5) on Monday. Elsewhere, there is a high to very high fire danger rating (level 3 or 4 out of 5). This period of very dry air and gusty winds will dry out fuels, especially now that the spring greenup has already begun. Fuel moisture will be on a decreasing trend with 10 hr and 1 hr fuel moisture heading towards the lower percentiles by Monday. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for most of Southeast TX on Monday. Be sure to practice fire safety and avoid any activities that could spark a fire as they could spread rapidly in these conditions. Drier air and fuels stick around going into Tuesday, but winds will be lighter and southeasterly. RH values will begin to increase mid week into the end of the work week as onshore winds prevail and low level moisture recovers. Batiste NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...Wind Advisory until 6pm CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Red Flag Warning from 11am to 7pm CDT Monday for TXZ176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10pm CDT this evening for GMZ330-335- 350-355-370-375. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm Monday to 1am CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. Gale Warning from 10pm this evening to 1pm CDT Monday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. |
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