
Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 NM Marine Forecast
Rest Of Today...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Nw 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
Tonight...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Easing To Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
Mon...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
Mon Night...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
Tue...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft, Building To 4 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Nw 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
Tue Night...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Nw 4 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
Wed...N Wind Around 5 Kt, Rising To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
Wed Night...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Easing To Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
Thu...N Wind Around 5 Kt, Backing To Nw In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Nw 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
Thu Night...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Nw 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 458am PDT Sunday July 20 2025 /Issued 406am PDT Sunday July 20 2025/ An upper level trough will be the main feature and weather influencer for the remainder of the forecast period. Today through Tuesday, the pattern will consist of an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest, resulting in near normal temperatures (coolest temperatures of the forecast period) along with precipitation chances and increased cloud cover. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the pattern will transition as the PacNW trough shifts eastward, but lingering energy forms a cut-off low off the California coast and gradually meanders eastward through the end of the week. This pattern will maintain near normal temperatures, along with thunderstorm chances across the area for the latter half of the week. Skies are clear across almost the whole forecast area this morning. There is an area of fog along the coast near Brookings/Gold Beach, but clear skies otherwise. Low pressure lingers over British Columbia this morning, and some mid-higher level cloud cover associated with this trough is gradually edging southward into the forecast area. The overall pattern doesn't change much until later today into Monday, so overall conditions will be very similar to yesterday though with some subtle changes. Another round of gusty west to northwest winds are expected this afternoon/evening again. Temperatures will also be fairly similar to Saturday's reading, though slightly cooler west of the Cascades. The other difference today will be increasing cloud cover through the day. Later this evening and overnight, a reinforcing shortwave will dig this trough farther southward and bring the center of the trough over northern OR and WA. This will bring a front (weak by winter standards, modest by summer standards) through the region tonight into early Monday morning. It's possible to see some returns on radar along the coast late this afternoon, but the chances of any light measurable precipitation don't really arrive until this evening and overnight. The front is pretty broken up as it moves across southern Oregon and our region will be at the tail end of it. Models show it holding together after it gets east of the Cascades, so the best chances for any measurable precipitation will be along the coast (15-25%) and then across northern Klamath (10-15%) and eastern Lake Counties (20-30%). The main front looks to be east of the forecast area by late Monday morning. An uptick in shower activity expected Monday afternoon and evening mainly east of the Cascades, with some isolated thunderstorms also possible. Monday will also be the "coolest" day of the forecast period, with afternoon highs anticipated to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal. Winds should weaker on Monday compared to this weekend with the exception of southeastern areas (Modoc/SE Lake Counties). Tuesday looks to be a transition day as the trough elongates over the area. Energy gets cut off from the parent low, forming a low pressure off the coast of California - which will become the focus of our attention for the remainder of the week. If you've been following along this summer, you'll note that this is a classic thunderstorm pattern for the region. There remains differences in position/location/strength of this low pressure, which will have implications on exactly when and where thunderstorm chances are. We continue to lean on the National Blend of Models for this time frame, which is starting to introduce thunder potential for the latter half of the week, but have also incorporated other guidance in attempt to fine tune some details where possible. Further adjustments are almost certain, but at this time it remains consistent from the day shift that Thursday looks to be the focus of thunderstorm activity with the most favorable dynamics/instability. There could be some isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday as the trough is elongating, which could provide enough lift to fire off some storms across the East Side, but on Wedensday low pressure is just establishing itself and there really won't have been enough time to draw up the unstable air from the south. Thunderstorm chances could continue into Friday when models show the cut-off low being swept back up into the westerlies. Given this is still 5-6 days out, much could change in the forecast depending on model trends. Overall, the pattern does favor thunderstorms east of the Cascades and across northern California for the latter half of the week. Stay tuned for updates. Beyond the end of the week, models show a broad trough over the eastern Pacific which would maintain southwesterly flow over the region and near normal temperatures. Marine Updated 145am PDT Sunday, July 20, 2025...A weak thermal trough along the coast will maintain gusty north winds south of Cape Blanco through the morning. This will result in low end advisory level winds and steep seas south of Port Orford. Winds weaken through the day as an upper level trough settles over the region and disrupts the thermal trough pattern. Thereafter, relatively light winds and seas are expected through much of next week. Fire Weather Updated 330am PDT Sunday, July 20, 2025... The forecast area will remain at the base of an upper level trough centered over southern British Columbia through this afternoon. This will bring conditions quite similar to Saturday, and fire weather conditions will remain elevated today across the Modoc (gusty winds/low RH). Despite another round of gusty west to Northwest winds this afternoon/evening, the remainder of the area will see slightly higher daytime humidities (20-30%) today that will mitigate near critical conditions. Later today and overnight, the trough will deepen over northern OR/WA, and send a front through the area. Precipitation chances (15- 30%) will be best along the coast and east of the Cascades, though precipitation amounts will generally be only a few hundreths at best. The front will be east of the region by Monday morning and Monday will be the "coolest" day of the forecast period with the highest daytime humidities. Showers are expected east of the Cascades Monday afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms possible over northern Klamath/Lake Counties. By Tuesday, the trough elongates over the region, resulting in another day of "cooler" temperatures. Guidance shows energy from this trough forming another low pressure off the coast of California around mid-week. This pattern would result in the return of thunderstorms to the forecast for the remainder of the week. There are differences on the position/location/strength of this low, so stay tuned for updates to the forecast as the time gets closer and see discussion above for current thougheights on timing location for the latter half of the week. NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11am PDT this morning for PZZ356-376. |