Marine Weather Net

Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ656 Forecast Issued: 400 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
Today...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop.
Tonight...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop.
Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop.
Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop.
Mon Night And Tue...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And Ne 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop.
Tue Night And Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop.
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Area Forecast Discussion
...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL
847am EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...High Risk Of Rip Currents East Coast Beaches... ...New

Issued at 841am EST Sat Feb 15 2025

High pressure over Florida will move slowly eastward today into the Western Atlantic waters. This will allow for a moderate to breezy southeast wind flow along with dry weather over South Florida today along with a threat of rip currents for the east coast coastal areas today. Highs still look to get into the lower to mid 80s over most areas, except around 80 east coast metro areas today.

Therefore, No changes are plan for the forecast today for South Florida. The High Risk Of Rip Currents will also continue for the east coast beaches of South Florida today.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned at this time.

.SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 210am EST Sat Feb 15 2025

Broad mid level ridging over South Florida this morning will gradually begin to flatten later today into tonight as a mid level shortwave trough pushes into the lower Mississippi Valley and towards the Northern Gulf. This shortwave will pass just to the north of the region, and then into the western Atlantic on Sunday. At the surface, strengthening low pressure will push into the Tennessee River Valley later today, and then it will move through the Midwest and Northeast tonight into Sunday. The frontal boundary will march through the Southeast and into the Florida Peninsula during this time frame. The ridge currently overhead will help to provide mainly dry conditions to South Florida through today and a good portion of Sunday. The only exception may be a brief isolated shower passing over the east coast and Atlantic waters through later this morning. Winds across the region will gradually increase especially heading into later this afternoon and then even more so on Sunday as the front approaches the region from the northwest. Winds will also be veering to a more south southeasterly direction tonight, and then eventually becoming southwesterly out ahead of the front on Sunday. This will create warm conditions across the region throughout the upcoming weekend. Highs today will generally rise to around 80 along the east coast and into the mid 80s across Southwest Florida. Highs on Sunday will rise into the lower 80s across Southwest Florida and into the mid 80s across the east coast metro areas as winds shift and become southwesterly.

Long Term
(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 210am EST Sat Feb 15 2025

With the mid level trough axis associated with the aforementioned shortwave remaining off to the north, the frontal boundary will be in a weakening state as it passes through South Florida Sunday night into early Monday as the best mid level energy and dynamics race off to the northeast. While isolated to scattered showers will be possible out ahead of the front Sunday night into Monday, thunderstorm chances will remain extremely low due to lack of instability as well as no mid to upper level support. Once the front passes through on Monday, it will stall out just to the south of the region over the Florida Keys. This will allow for the winds to shift around to the north northeast on Monday ushering in some relief from the above normal temperatures that have been persistent over the past several days. With the front stalling out nearby, there will be enough lower level moisture in place to support a slight chance of showers mainly across the east coast metro areas throughout the day. High temperatures on Monday will generally rise into the mid to upper 70s across most areas. The exception to this will be over extreme Southwest Florida where highs could still rise into the lower 80s.

Zonal flow to weak mid level ridging will return to South Florida on Tuesday into Wednesday as another mid level shortwave moves out of the Desert Southwest and into the Southern Plains and Northern Gulf by Wednesday. This shortwave will help to organize a broad area of low pressure over the Deep South and Northern Gulf later on Tuesday and into Tuesday night and this area of low pressure will strengthen as it pushes eastward along the Gulf Coast and eventually into the western Atlantic off of the Southeast coast. In response to this developing area of low pressure, the weak frontal boundary stalled out to the south will gradually lift northward over South Florida Tuesday keeping the chances of showers in place mainly across the eastern half of the region as well as the Lake Okeechobee region during this time frame. High temperatures will be on a warming trend on Tuesday as they will rise into the upper 70s along the east coast to lower 80s across Southwest Florida.

Uncertainty starts to rise in the forecast at this point and then heading towards the second half of the week as the latest ensemble and global model suite remain in disagreement in regard to the timing and intensity of the frontal boundary as it pushes through South Florida. While the exact details still need to be ironed out, as the front gets closer to the region on Wednesday, chances of showers will increase during this time frame and thunder cannot be completely ruled out and this will depend on the track and intensity of the front as it approaches. These showers and potential thunderstorms could linger into Thursday depending on how fast the front pushes through. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the lower 80s along the east coast to the mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Marine
Issued at 210am EST Sat Feb 15 2025

A moderate to fresh southeasterly wind flow will develop across the local waters today. These winds will gradually shift and become south southeasterly tonight, and then southwesterly on Sunday out ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas across the Atlantic waters will build and range from 4 to 6 feet into tonight before gradually diminishing for the second half of the weekend. Seas across the Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible on Sunday night into Monday as the front pushes through the region.

Beaches
Issued at 210am EST Sat Feb 15 2025

A high risk of rip currents will develop across the Atlantic Coast beaches today as onshore flow increases along with an increasing swell in the Atlantic waters. The risk of rip currents may remain high over the Atlantic beaches heading into the second half of the weekend as well.

NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.