Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
| Today...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Light Freezing Spray Early This Morning. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late In The Evening, Then Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot, Building To 2 To 3 Ft In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Rain. |
| Fri...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Rain In The Morning. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 537am EST Monday Dec 15 2025 Synopsis Arctic air moves in behind a cold front this morning, and provides a cold start to the week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of this week. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 205am EST Monday... - Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for the entire area for bitterly cold temps this morning with wind chills in the single digits. Yesterday's cold front is well offshore and strong Arctic high pressure is building in from the northwest early this morning. Aloft, the axis of a deep trough has shifted offshore as well, placing the local area under NW flow. Strong Cold Air Advection is ongoing. The latest temp obs show most of the area in the teens with a few sites along our western border as low as 14. Only the far SE and area immediately near the coast remain in the low 20s. Wind chills are 5- 10F, and a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect. Temps will likely drop another degree or two before sunrise. Winds have started to diminish, especially inland, so wind chills might actually rise a few degrees early this morning, but it will still be frigid nonetheless. The surface high will slide in overhead today with its center just to the south. As a result, winds will be much lighter during the day and skies will be clear to mostly sunny. Temps will struggle to warm past freezing today with highs in the low to mid 30s. Thankfully conditions will not quite be ideal for radiational cooling tonight given a light SW wind and partly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the low 20s with perhaps some of the colder rural spots dropping to the upper teens. Short Term - Tuesday Through Thursday As of 205am EST Monday... Key Messages: - Dry through mid-week with highs slowly moderating towards the 50s and low 60s through Thursday. Dry weather continues through the mid week period. High pressure will get suppressed to the S/SE Tues and Wednesday as the flow aloft gradually shifts to the SW. The surface high then expands and builds back N offshore on Thursday as a cold front and UL trough approach from the west. Will see temps moderate through the week starting with highs in the 40s on Tues, 50s on Wed, and 50s to low 60s on Thurs. Tues night lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s, then a few degrees warmer for Wednesday night. Could see some rain in the piedmont Thurs afternoon, but the bulk of the precipitation associated with the approaching front does not move in until later Thurs night. Long Term - Thursday Night Through Sunday As of 205am EST Monday... - A (weaker) cold front brings rain to the area Thurs night - Seasonable temps on Fri and Sat, then potentially mild on Sunday. There is still good agreement between the global models with regards to a cold front crossing the region Thursday night into Friday morning. Widespread rain is likely Thurs night, but amounts will be fairly low. Both the GEFS and ECWMF Ens have totals right around 0.2- 0.3". Drying out Friday morning and staying dry through Saturday. Not a whole lot in the way of Cold Air Advection is expected with this front as it looks like the high pressure behind it will come from the W or even the WSW and the flow aloft quickly flattens out behind the trough. Forecast highs for Fri range from the upper 40s across the NW to the upper 50s in the SE. A bit chillier Saturday with highs in the mid 40s to around 50F. Guidance indicates a possible warm front for Sunday, bringing low-end rain chances and highs creeping up into the 60s for southern portions of the area. Marine As of 205am EST Monday... Key Messages: -Gale Warnings remain in effect for all waters early this morning morning due to the strong northwest winds. -Generally lighter winds are expected later today through the first part of Thursday, though occasional SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are possible in the Chesapeake Bay. Early this morning, the strong front from yesterday morning is now located well offshore with much colder and drier air continuing to filter into the area. Winds have started to trend down compared to earlier, but still remain very windy with gusts of 40 to 45 knots over the Chesapeake Bay/ocean and 30 to 35 knots over the rivers. Gale Warnings remain in effect for all areas minus the upper rivers which has been replaced with a SCA. Winds will continue to diminish this morning, with all locations falling back to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria by daybreak. Winds remain elevated into this afternoon and SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will be needed. High pressure quickly advances in by the later this afternoon and evening and winds should become sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) by this time. As winds shift to the SW late tonight, a brief uptick in wind speeds (from a transient low-level jet) could necessitate marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines in the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. With higher criteria on the ocean, SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) seem quite unlikely at this time. Beyond tonight, much lighter winds make a return for Tuesday, followed by another increase in SW winds Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another strong cold front is forecast to approach the region Thursday, crossing the waters early Friday. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are likely in both the pre-frontal SW wind and post-fostal NW wind regimes Thursday night/Friday, with Gales possible in the northern coastal waters. Seas have peaked around 6-10 ft (highest offshore and S of Cape Charles). Waves up to 5-6 ft are likely in the Chesapeake Bay, with 3-5 ft waves in the lower James River and 2-3 ft waves in the upper rivers and Currituck Sound early this morning. Seas should subside below 5 ft later this afternoon/evening given the decreasing (and offshore) wind direction. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 9am EST this morning for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9am EST this morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9am EST this morning for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. Marine Low Water Advisory until 7am EST this morning for ANZ630-635. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. Low Water Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST this morning for ANZ633- 635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ656- 658. |
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