Marine Weather Net

Alligator River Marine Forecast


TODAY

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN

SW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ131 Forecast Issued: 657 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
Today...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se Early This Afternoon, Then Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt Late. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop Late. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late.
Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight.
Sun...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Waves Rough. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon.
Sun Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Choppy. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Tue Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Wed...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain Likely In The Afternoon.
Wed Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight. Rain. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
641am EST Sat Feb 15 2025

Synopsis
Rainfall pushes back into the area today ahead of a strong frontal system. Windy with a chance of storms on Sunday. High pressure returns early next week before another system approaches during the midweek timeframe.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 355am EST Saturday... Key Messages:

- Widespread rain moves back into the region this afternoon this with the heaviest rainfall expected across the northern half of the area.

- Temperatures rise tonight as low level flow becomes southerly in the wake of a warm frontal passage, bringing increasing low level moisture to the region.

1034mb high pressure is centered along the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning as low pressure develops across the central plains states. Flow aloft transitions from zonal to southwesterly today as downstream ridging amplifies ahead of a digging trough over the Four Corners region. High clouds continue to thicken from west to east this morning as moisture increases aloft.

00z HREF guidance continues to argue for a slower ramp up in Probability of Precipitation across the west this morning. Will increase Probability of Precipitation after 15z with the heavier Quantitative Precipitation Forecast not arriving until this afternoon. While it will initially be cold/dry across the Piedmont, expect temps/wetbulbs to rise above freezing before widespread rain moves in. A very brief period of mixed precipitation is possible in the Piedmont as the column saturates but no winter weather impacts are expected. The axis of heaviest rainfall is expected across the north and northwest today and tonight where 1-1.25" of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is forecast. To the south and east totals decrease to 0.75-0.25" (lowest for SE VA and NE NC). Not expecting widespread flooding issues with the precipitation today and tonight but localized flooding is possible given how wet the area has been over the last few weeks. WPC has included the the northern 2/3 of the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.

Temperatures today will range widely from the upper 30s over the western Piedmont to the mid and upper 50s for the SE. In-situ CAD will tend to lock in across the Piedmont as rainfall initially evaporates into the dry/cool airmass. A warm front will lift into the SE third of the area today and lift farther NW tonight as low level SE then S flow increases. Temps tonight will be highly non- diurnal, "overnight lows" occur this evening with temps slowly rising thereafter. Expecting a lull in the precipitation for most of the area tonight with precipitation character becoming more showery vs stratiform as the region gets into the warm sector of the approaching system.

Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
As of 355am EST Saturday... Key Messages:

- Shower/storm chances ramp up Sunday morning into the afternoon.

- Very breezy to windy Sunday outside of any convective influences. A Wind Advisory has been issued for roughly the eastern half of the area with the strongest winds expected across SE portions of the area Sunday afternoon.

- A strong cold front comes through Sunday night, bringing precipitation to an end with gusty winds continuing near the coast overnight into Monday.

00z guidance is in excellent agreement with respect to rapidly deepening low pressure lifting from the Ohio Valley into New England. Low level winds increase quickly on Sunday, especially across the eastern half of the area where deeper mixing is favored. Sustained winds increase to 20-35 mph with gusts 30-45 mph (lowest NW and highest SE) Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Very strong flow aloft will likely mix down to the surface Sunday afternoon. High temperatures warm well above seasonal norms with low 60s NW to mid/upper 60s to around 70 degrees SE. Recent very wet conditions combined with the strong gusty winds may result in some downed trees and power outages. Very impressive kinematics aloft will also result in the potential for strong to severe storms across the region ahead of the cold front. Instability remains the limiting factor for robust/deep convection but increasing low level moisture and some surface heating could prove sufficient for a severe wind threat mainly across the southeastern half of the area. Storm Prediction Center has kept most of the area (roughly SE of a line from Prince Edward county NE to Caroline County) in a Marginal Risk for severe storms Sunday. WPC has kept most of the region in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday. The cold front crosses the area late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours, bringing an end to any severe threat. Precip will quickly move offshore Sunday evening, remaining breezy near the coast Sunday night as cold advection strengthens. Lows overnight tumble back into the upper 20s to low 30s. High pressure returns for Monday leading to return of cool/dry weather. High temperatures will range from the low-mid 40s NW to the upper 40s SE. Cold and dry Monday night with lows falling into the low/mid 20s inland with upper 20s to low 30s near the coast.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
As of 355am EST Saturday... Key Messages:

-Watching the potential for another winter weather system Wednesday into Thursday.

The pattern looks to remain quite cold next week as a deep upper low becomes cutoff over eastern Canada, with strong surface high pressure sliding SE from the Canadian Rockies into the Midwest. All of the main operational models (GFS/ECMWF/Canadian) and respective ensemble members are showing chances for a winter storm (potentially significant) impacting much of the region during the Wednesday- Thursday timeframe. 00z guidance continues to show modest disagreement with respect to the expect track and strength of low pressure lifting up the coast Wednesday into Thursday. The general trend to toward a more northwesterly low track which will result in more mixed precipitation across the SE half of the area. The ECMWF/ENS continues to be the most amplified with the higher snow totals vs the other models/ensembles with widespread 60-80% probs of >=3" of snowfall across central VA into the Eastern Shore. The GEFS has the lowest probs for 3" of snow with the GEPS in between the two extremes. Have continued to slowly increase Probability of Precipitation with each forecast cycle. Will continue to show mostly snow NW and N with mixed precipitation increasing with SE extent. Forecast soundings do show a decent warm nose aloft for the SE half of the area which will result in a mixed bag of p-types. This event still has a rather high ceiling with Quantitative Precipitation Forecast well over an inch across the region. Temperatures are highly uncertain at this range and will depend on how this system evolves. Follow the forecast over the next few days as details come into focus. Cold and dry conditions move in behind the system as high pressure builds into the region.

Marine
As of 355am EST Saturday... - Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected today through part of tonight.

- Gale Warnings have been issued for all waters for S-SW winds on Sunday becoming west Sunday night following a cold frontal passage. Gusts to 35-40 kt are expected, although gusts up to 45 kt are possible near the land/water interface during the day on Sunday.

- Another more wintry system will bring solid SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to gale conditions to the waters from Wednesday through Thursday.

High pressure is centered near the waters early this morning, with SE winds of 5-10 kt and 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected today through part of tonight as winds veer to the south. Wind speeds through tonight will be no higher than 10-15 kt through most of tonight on the bay...but will increase to 15-20 kt on the ocean. Seas build to 4-6 ft tonight, with 2-3 ft waves.

Conditions rapidly deteriorate on Sunday as strong (980-985 mb) low pressure tracks from the Ohio Valley to Lake Ontario. This feature will drag a cold front through the area late Sunday. Ahead of the front, strong S-SW winds are expected as the pressure gradient tightens. Guidance has come up with respect to wind speeds and even though the marine boundary layer will be stable with the cool (5C) waters and 925 mb temps of 15C...wind speeds will increase to 20-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt on the open water during the day on Sunday. Gusts will actually be higher (potentially as high as 40-45 kt for a few hours) over the rivers and near the land/water interface of the bay/ocean due to higher winds over the much warmer/well mixed land bleeding over into the water. As such, Gale Warnings have been issued for all waters starting 14z/9am Sunday and continuing through Monday morning. Wind Advisories are in effect for all land areas adjacent to the waters for the S-SW winds on Sunday. In addition to the synoptic wind, showers/thunderstorms could produce localized 50 kt gusts Sunday afternoon. Seas build to 6-10 ft by late Sunday with 4-5 ft waves.

The front crosses the waters Sunday evening with strong Cold Air Advection and deeper mixing in its wake. Wind gusts may drop below gale criteria for a few hours Sunday evening as winds turn to the W behind the front before increasing to 25-30 kt with gusts to 40 kt Sunday night into Monday morning. Local wind probs for 34 kt+ gusts have increased to 60-90% for both the pre and post-frontal winds. Winds remain elevated into SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds through much of the day Monday before gradually dropping off Monday evening/night as high pressure briefly returns. Another (more wintry) system will likely bring solid SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to potentially gale conditions Wednesday into Thursday.

Hydrology
As of 400am EST Saturday... A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the Meherrin at Lawrenceville. Flooding is possible at the James River/RIC Westham for the weekend and into early next week, with minor to near moderate flooding possible.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...Wind Advisory from 9am to 7pm EST Sunday for MDZ021>025. NC...Wind Advisory from 9am to 7pm EST Sunday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Wind Advisory from 9am to 7pm EST Sunday for VAZ075>078- 080>090-092-093-095>100-511>525.

Marine
Gale Warning from 9am Sunday to 1pm EST Monday for ANZ630- 631-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 9am Sunday to 10am EST Monday for ANZ632- 634-656-658. Gale Warning from 9am to 7pm EST Sunday for ANZ633. Gale Warning from 9am Sunday to 4am EST Monday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 9am EST Sunday for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.