Albemarle Sound Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tonight...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. |
| Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...Ne Winds Around 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Wed...Ne Winds Around 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft. |
| Thu...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Thu Night...Se Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
|
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1030am EDT Sunday July 20 2025 Synopsis A stronger cold front crosses the area later today into Monday. While scattered showers and storms storms are possible along the front Monday, mainly dry weather is otherwise expected for the week. This front should also bring a return to seasonable temperatures and humidity for the middle portion of the week, before temperatures and humidity again rise by Friday and the weekend. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 1030am EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - A much lower coverage of showers and storms is expected today. The best chance for an isolated storm or two is on the Eastern Shore this afternoon. - Hot and humid again today with the highest heat indices (105-109 F) in southeast VA and northeast NC. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM-8pm in these areas. The low stratus across the area this morning has mostly scattered out, with only the northeastern counties and Eastern Shore still seeing thicker cloud cover still. Otherwise, mostly clear skies prevail. The front that has been stalled north of our area has started to slowly lift away from the area as the parent low across the eastern Great Lakes region treks gradually to the NE. Meanwhile, a cold front associated with the same low is approaching the area from the NW. These two fronts will be the main triggers of convection today, with the main focus areas of storms across the Ohio River Valley and across the Northeast. Convection across our area will be limited this afternoon, with the upper-levels not nearly as conducive for thunderstorm development. CAMs are not particularly thrilled about much activity other than potentially a few showers/storms moving across the Northern Neck/Eastern Shore this evening. Storm Prediction Center has removed the Marginal Risk for severe storms across the forecast area except for a sliver that remains across the SW Piedmont counties to account for any storms that may sneak in there this evening from our NW. The environment still features PW values between 1.5-2"+, with potentially modest CAPE values still in place across that area this evening, so if any storms move into our western area, they could become strong. Have maintained temperatures a degree or two below MOS guidance due to the amount of rainfall we have received and how temperatures have been struggling to reach their full potential these past few days. Despite this, temperatures will still likely reach the mid 90s (lower 90s Eastern Shore). Dew points will be in the mid to upper 70s, with heat indices climbing to between 100-109F this afternoon. Areas in SE VA and NE NC will experience heat indices between 105- 109F this afternoon, so a Heat Advisory is in effect for these areas from 11 am to 8 pm. Forecast lows tonight are in the low-mid 70s inland and upper 70s at the immediate coast. The cold front will drop southward through the area tonight, bringing a wind shift to the N by sunrise Monday morning. Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night As of 250am EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Showers and storms are possible Monday, especially for western/southwest portions of the area, as a cold front remains in the vicinity of the local area. - Seasonable temperatures and lower humidity expected by Tuesday, along with mainly dry weather. The front looks to remain in the vicinity of S/SW portions of our CWA (County Warning Area) through Monday. This could spark some afternoon convection in these areas, with some potential for upstream activity to also move through in the later afternoon and evening. The coverage of convection is highly dependent on where the front ultimately ends up. CAM solutions are quite divergent and suggest convection could stay confined to the far SW or encroach all the way to the I-95 corridor. At this time, will maintain NBM Probability of Precipitation of 30-50% W of I-95 and S of I- 64. Dry conditions are expected for the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. A gradient in high temps is also expected with temps warming into the upper 80s-lower 90s along and S of the front, with mid 80s to the N. Lows Monday night currently look to drop into the mid- upper 60s inland and lower 70s near the coast, but could be a few degrees cooler if skies can clear. High pressure builds toward the area from the north Tuesday as the front drops further S and mainly dry weather weather is anticipated. A lingering shower or storm could occur across the SW Piedmont given the NW flow aloft, but the chance is quite low (20% or less). Otherwise, a very nice day is expected with noticeably lower humidity and high temperatures in the mid 80s. Lows Tuesday night again look to be in the 60s for most, though lower 70s tend to linger near the coast where the ocean/bay water remains warm. Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday As of 250am EDT Sunday... Key Message: - A gradual warming trend starts Wednesday, with hot and humid conditions again returning by the end of the week and weekend. Relatively benign weather is expected from Wednesday through the end of the week, with minimal rain chances in the forecast. Seasonable Wednesday and Thursday with comfortable afternoon humidity levels. While this will bring much-needed relief, it unfortunately is not expected to last long. Upper ridging will build across the area by later Thursday which will propel temperatures back up above normal Friday into next weekend. Rising temperatures will happen in conjunction with increasing low-level moisture and humidity, so heat indices will be back on the rise. While we are not expecting any heat products out in the coming work week, Heat Advisories may be required by the weekend. Low-end chances for afternoon/evening storms also return for the weekend period. Marine As of 230am EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - A cold front drops across the waters late tonight into Monday morning. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will go into effect for late tonight into early Monday morning with the associated post-frontal surge of cooler, drier air across the waters. - Winds remain elevated out of the E-NE Monday night through Wednesday, but look to remain predominately sub-SCA. Seas do look to build to 3-4 ft Wednesday with increasing SE Swell and wind waves. - A period of elevated southwesterly winds is possible Thursday night. Latest surface analysis depicted low pressure over the upper Great lakes and southern Ontario. The associated warm front was draped across the upper Ches bay north of the local area. the trailing cold front extended across the eastern Great Lakes back into the central plains. Offshore, Bermuda ridging remains anchored well out in the western Atlantic, extending back SW into the eastern gulf. Winds were W-SW ~10 kt this morning. Seas 2-3ft (highest north) with waves 1-2 ft over the bay, rivers and sound. Flow remains SSW today ~10kt, as the warm front slips farther north through the day and surface ridging slides farther offshore. Previously referenced cold front still looks to drop SSE across the local area waters late tonight into Monday, with a northerly wind surge likely late tonight through mid-morning Monday. Winds become N 10-15kt with gusts up to 20 kt during this period. While in-house probs for 18kt sustained winds remain low (10 to 30%), still anticipate that we will see at least a brief round of SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) with this surge late tonight/Monday morning given the CAA/drier air post-frontal, along with pressure rises from the N and warm local waters well into the upper 70s to low 80s F. Have therefore gone with an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the Ches Bay and lower James River late tonight through mid-morning Monday. Northerly winds remain elevated ~10-15 kt through the day on Mon, gradually becoming NE by late Monday afternoon/evening. An secondary Cold Air Advection surge of winds is expected Monday night as the gradient re- compresses as surface high builds south across New England and ridges into the region from the NE. Seas build to 2-3 ft Monday (and may get that high in the lower Bay/lower James Monday as well). Seasonally cool 1024+ mb surface high pressure builds over New England Monday and Tuesday, before building south offshore of the Delmarva coast Tuesday through Wednesday night. NNW winds back to the northeast by Monday afternoon and remain NE 10-15 kt from late Monday evening through early Wednesday morning, with gusts to 20 kt each evening in the lower bay, Currituck Sound, lower James and over the coastal waters. Winds veer more E-SE later Wednesday through late week, as the high sets up in the western Atlantic into next weekend, with elevated SSW winds possible Thu afternoon and night and again on Friday night/early Saturday. Seas remain mostly in the 2- 3 ft range, building to 3-4 ft Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a combination of wind wave and building SE swell. Seas could briefly approach 5 ft over the far S waters Wednesday into Wednesday afternoon. Rip Currents A low risk of rip currents is expected through Monday, but may flirt with moderate by midweek with building seas and orientation of swell becoming more shore normal Tue-Thu. Hydrology As of 230am EDT Sunday... A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Blackwater River in Dendron. River levels continue to fall slowly but are still above minor criteria, so the warning has been extended until further notice. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC... Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA... Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for VAZ065-079-084- 086>090-092-093-095>098-100-523>525. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 4am to 10am EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634-638. |
Wakefield Norfolk VA Radar
Northeast Radar
East Coast Satellite